Coronavirus Facts and Figures: Wednesday, July 1, 2020 – New Cases Could Double to 100,000, Fauci Warns

By Anna Breuer on 1 July 2020
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A street photographer in Paris

The number of coronavirus cases across the globe now stands at 10.64 million, an increase of over 172,264 people in the past 24 hours.  Out of this, 5.84 million have recovered, based on data compiled by Worldometer, a service that aggregates and makes available world statistics. The death toll now stands at 515,413.

The number of daily deaths was 5,072 on Tuesday.

The number of active cases continues to increase dramatically.  As of Wednesday, there are 4.29 million active cases worldwide, an increase of over a quarter of a million since Monday, and 6.36 million closed cases.  Out of the active cases, 4.23 million are mild and 1% or 57,932 are severe.

In the United States and its territories, the number of confirmed cases stands at 2.74 million, an increase of over 140,000 cases since Monday, while the death toll stands at 130,284, an increase of 2,073.

On Tuesday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the United States, warned that the number of new infections in the United States could more than double to 100,000 a day if the country fails to contain the surge that is now underway in many states.

The increases in the country are being attributed to a mixture of increased testing, the lifting of lockdowns, the lack of mask use and social distancing in the regions experiencing the surges.

For months, the epicenter was in states in the Northeast but, more recently, the biggest increases have been observed in the South and the West.

Brazil continues to have the second highest number of cases in the world, and crossed the one million mark Monday with 1.41 million as of Wednesday, with a death toll of 59,745.  Meanwhile, Russia has the third highest number, with 654,405, up 6,556 in the past 24 hours. The death toll there is 9,536, a figure that officials in the United States continue to consider an undercount.

The critical R0 figure in Germany rose slightly to 0.86 over the past week as a 7-day average, according to the Robert-Koch-Institut. Two weeks ago it had been at 2.88.

R0, pronounced “r naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is.  Based on a seven-day average, the reproduction rate jumped to 2.03, according to RKI statistics from Sunday.  In Austria, the number of cases was up by 48, to 17,271, and the infection rate continues to average around 1.0.

While international correlation of these figures are difficult, perhaps the most useful comparison is to look at the deaths per million members of the population, with the caveat that there are differences in how countries record deaths. It’s also important to keep in mind that the number of deaths is a lagging indicator.

Tiny San Marino, with a population of just over 33,000 and which has been testing all of its inhabitants, continues to have the highest number of deaths per million members of the population, at 1,238, unchanged for 39 days.

Belgium has the second highest number of deaths per million members of the population, 842. It is followed by Andorra with 673 (unchanged in 15 days) and the United Kingdom with 647.  Spain reported 606 (unchanged in 35 days), Italy, 575, while Sweden and France reported 528 and 457, respectively.

The Netherlands, Ireland, and Switzerland have reported 357, 352, and 227 (unchanged in 6 days), respectively.  In Germany the figure is 108 (unchanged in 3 days), while in Austria it is 78, both unchanged in 6 days.

The number of deaths per million members of the population in the United States is now 394.  It remains three in China, according to official figures there, which are also believed to be an undercount.

 

(Photo: Accura Media Group)

Accura News

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